PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › QB
Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Joe Burrow: CIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Trevor Lawrence: JAC vs PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET
START TREVOR LAWRENCECOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Trevor Lawrence edges Joe Burrow, outscoring him in 50.4% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (50%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Trevor Lawrence (p10 9.0). Need upside? Joe Burrow (p85 26.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Joe Burrow | 50% | QB9 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 26.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 50% | QB8 | 16.9 | 9.0 | 26.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Joe Burrow | 50% | QB9 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 26.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 50% | QB8 | 16.9 | 9.0 | 26.0 | |
| Standard | Joe Burrow | 50% | QB9 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 26.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 50% | QB8 | 16.9 | 9.0 | 26.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.