PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › QB
Joe Burrow or Matthew Stafford: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Joe Burrow: CIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Matthew Stafford: LAR vs BUF, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET
START JOE BURROWCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Joe Burrow edges Matthew Stafford, outscoring him in 51.3% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Joe Burrow (p10 8.6). Need upside? Matthew Stafford (p85 26.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Joe Burrow | 51% | QB9 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 26.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | 49% | QB12 | 16.5 | 7.9 | 26.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Joe Burrow | 51% | QB9 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 26.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | 49% | QB12 | 16.5 | 7.9 | 26.5 | |
| Standard | Joe Burrow | 51% | QB9 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 26.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | 49% | QB12 | 16.5 | 7.9 | 26.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.