PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › RB
Jaylen Warren or Derrick Henry: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Jaylen Warren: PIT vs IND, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Derrick Henry: BAL vs ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET
START JAYLEN WARREN
Start Jaylen Warren over Derrick Henry in Week 5 (PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in half-PPR (54%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Jaylen Warren (p10 8.5). Need upside? Jaylen Warren (p85 29.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaylen Warren | 57% | RB3 | 17.9 | 8.5 | 29.8 |
| Derrick Henry | 43% | RB8 | 15.8 | 7.3 | 27.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaylen Warren | 54% | RB3 | 16.2 | 7.5 | 27.8 |
| Derrick Henry | 46% | RB6 | 15.0 | 6.8 | 26.2 | |
| Standard | Jaylen Warren | 51% | RB3 | 14.5 | 6.4 | 25.7 |
| Derrick Henry | 49% | RB4 | 14.2 | 6.3 | 25.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.