PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Nico Collins: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Jaxon Smith-Njigba: SEA vs SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Nico Collins: HOU vs TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 5: Jaxon Smith-Njigba edges Nico Collins, outscoring him in 53.0% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (53%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p10 7.1). Need upside? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p85 32.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 53% | WR3 | 17.9 | 7.1 | 32.0 |
| Nico Collins | 47% | WR5 | 16.7 | 6.6 | 30.2 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 53% | WR3 | 14.7 | 5.4 | 27.5 |
| Nico Collins | 47% | WR5 | 13.6 | 5.0 | 25.9 | |
| Standard | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 53% | WR3 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 23.1 |
| Nico Collins | 47% | WR5 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 21.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.