PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › QB
Drake Maye or Lamar Jackson: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Drake Maye: NE vs LV, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Lamar Jackson: BAL vs ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET
START LAMAR JACKSONCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Lamar Jackson edges Drake Maye, outscoring him in 50.4% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (50%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Lamar Jackson (p10 10.0). Need upside? Drake Maye (p85 27.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Drake Maye | 50% | QB2 | 18.0 | 9.4 | 27.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 50% | QB3 | 17.9 | 10.0 | 27.2 | |
| Half-PPR | Drake Maye | 50% | QB2 | 18.0 | 9.4 | 27.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 50% | QB3 | 17.9 | 10.0 | 27.2 | |
| Standard | Drake Maye | 50% | QB2 | 18.0 | 9.4 | 27.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 50% | QB3 | 17.9 | 10.0 | 27.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.