PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › TE
Dalton Kincaid or Hunter Henry: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Dalton Kincaid: BUF vs LAR, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET · Hunter Henry: NE vs LV, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START DALTON KINCAIDCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Dalton Kincaid edges Hunter Henry, outscoring him in 50.7% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (52%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Hunter Henry (p10 2.3). Need upside? Dalton Kincaid (p85 18.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Dalton Kincaid | 51% | TE9 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 18.6 |
| Hunter Henry | 49% | TE10 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 18.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Dalton Kincaid | 52% | TE8 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 15.8 |
| Hunter Henry | 48% | TE9 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 15.2 | |
| Standard | Dalton Kincaid | 53% | TE6 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 13.0 |
| Hunter Henry | 47% | TE9 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 12.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.