PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Chris Olave or Michael Wilson: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Chris Olave: NO vs MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Michael Wilson: ARI vs DET, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 5: Michael Wilson edges Chris Olave, outscoring him in 50.5% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Half-PPR: Michael Wilson (50%). Standard: Chris Olave (50%). Need a safe floor? Michael Wilson (p10 5.5). Need upside? Michael Wilson (p85 26.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chris Olave | 50% | WR8 | 14.4 | 5.4 | 26.0 |
| Michael Wilson | 50% | WR9 | 14.4 | 5.5 | 26.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Chris Olave | 50% | WR7 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 22.0 |
| Michael Wilson | 50% | WR9 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 22.1 | |
| Standard | Chris Olave | 50% | WR9 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 18.1 |
| Michael Wilson | 50% | WR10 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 18.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.