PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › RB
Chase Brown or Emanuel Wilson: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Chase Brown: CIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Emanuel Wilson: SEA vs SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 5: Chase Brown edges Emanuel Wilson, outscoring him in 55.0% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Half-PPR: Chase Brown (51%). Standard: Emanuel Wilson (54%). Need a safe floor? Chase Brown (p10 6.4). Need upside? Chase Brown (p85 25.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chase Brown | 55% | RB11 | 14.8 | 6.4 | 25.4 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 45% | RB13 | 13.2 | 5.0 | 24.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Chase Brown | 51% | RB12 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 23.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 49% | RB13 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 24.0 | |
| Standard | Chase Brown | 46% | RB13 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 20.8 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 54% | RB11 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 23.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.