PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
CeeDee Lamb or Zay Flowers: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· CeeDee Lamb: DAL vs TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET · Zay Flowers: BAL vs ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET
START CEEDEE LAMBCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: CeeDee Lamb edges Zay Flowers, outscoring him in 54.0% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (53%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? CeeDee Lamb (p10 7.8). Need upside? CeeDee Lamb (p85 34.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | CeeDee Lamb | 54% | WR2 | 19.1 | 7.8 | 34.0 |
| Zay Flowers | 46% | WR4 | 17.4 | 6.8 | 31.7 | |
| Half-PPR | CeeDee Lamb | 53% | WR1 | 15.5 | 5.9 | 29.2 |
| Zay Flowers | 47% | WR4 | 14.4 | 5.3 | 27.3 | |
| Standard | CeeDee Lamb | 52% | WR1 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 24.4 |
| Zay Flowers | 48% | WR4 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 23.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.