PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
CeeDee Lamb or Jaxon Smith-Njigba: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· CeeDee Lamb: DAL vs TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET · Jaxon Smith-Njigba: SEA vs SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
START CEEDEE LAMBCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: CeeDee Lamb edges Jaxon Smith-Njigba, outscoring him in 53.1% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (53%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? CeeDee Lamb (p10 7.8). Need upside? CeeDee Lamb (p85 34.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | CeeDee Lamb | 53% | WR2 | 19.1 | 7.8 | 34.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 47% | WR3 | 17.9 | 7.1 | 32.0 | |
| Half-PPR | CeeDee Lamb | 53% | WR1 | 15.5 | 5.9 | 29.2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 47% | WR3 | 14.7 | 5.4 | 27.5 | |
| Standard | CeeDee Lamb | 52% | WR1 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 24.4 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 48% | WR3 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 23.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.