PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown or Michael Wilson: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Amon-Ra St. Brown: DET vs ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Michael Wilson: ARI vs DET, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
START AMON-RA ST. BROWN
Start Amon-Ra St. Brown over Michael Wilson in Week 5 (PPR): he outscores him in 56% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in half-PPR (56%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Amon-Ra St. Brown (p10 6.4). Need upside? Amon-Ra St. Brown (p85 29.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 56% | WR6 | 16.5 | 6.4 | 29.5 |
| Michael Wilson | 44% | WR9 | 14.4 | 5.5 | 26.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 56% | WR6 | 13.0 | 4.6 | 25.1 |
| Michael Wilson | 44% | WR9 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 22.1 | |
| Standard | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 55% | WR6 | 9.8 | 2.7 | 20.8 |
| Michael Wilson | 45% | WR10 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 18.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.