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Tyquan Thornton out for KC vs LV: our model moves Xavier Worthy to 7.5 points
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
At Oct 5, 2026, 12:58 PM CT the injury feeds we track showed a change for the Kansas City Chiefs, so the model re-simulated their game against LV:
- Tyquan Thornton (WR) is out; he had been projected for 3.8 half-PPR points (median 2.7)
Fantasy outlook
- Tyquan Thornton (WR, out): out; had been projected 3.8 half-PPR (WR76). Verdict: out, do not start.
Half-PPR projection (mean of 10,000 sims) and weekly positional rank before and after this change. Verdicts use the same tiers as our start/sit page: top 12 QB/TE and top 24 RB/WR are starts, then flex range (QB 13-16, RB 25-32, WR 25-36, TE 13-16), otherwise bench. Rest-of-season impact not shown: our model projects one week at a time.
Who benefits
With him out this week: Half-PPR projection change vs the with-him baseline from our injury redistribution sims.
- Xavier Worthy (WR): 6.9 → 7.5 half-PPR (+0.6). Usage: targets 5.3→5.9; catches 3.2→3.6; receiving yards 33.0→36.1; target share 17%→18%.
- Travis Kelce (TE): 10.1 → 10.6 half-PPR (+0.5). Usage: targets 6.2→6.5; receiving yards 58.5→62.0; target share 19%→20%.
- Rashee Rice (WR): 13.5 → 13.9 half-PPR (+0.4). Usage: targets 8.3→8.8; target share 26%→27%.
- Kenneth Walker III (RB): 18.6 → 18.9 half-PPR (+0.3). Usage: target share 13%→14%.
Rest of season
This looks like a short-term / one-week designation, so the rest-of-season impact is minimal.
Source: with/without own-model sims (4,000 games each; vacated usage redistributed by build_inputs_own). Numbers are half-PPR means from our own-model sims with vacated usage redistributed by the same injury rules we use in production. Model opinion, not advice. 21+.
Where the volume goes
The clearest winner is Xavier Worthy (WR), whose half-PPR projection moves from 6.9 to 7.5 (+0.6); median 5.4 to 6.1, 85th-percentile outcome 12.4 to 13.2. Volume: targets 5.3 to 5.9 (mean); catches 3.2 to 3.6 (mean); receiving yards 33.0 to 36.1 (mean).
| Player | Pos | Half-PPR before | After | Change | 85th pct | Volume (mean) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 6.9 | 7.5 | +0.6 | 12.4→13.2 | targets 5.3→5.9; catches 3.2→3.6; receiving yards 33.0→36.1 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 10.1 | 10.6 | +0.5 | 17.5→18.0 | targets 6.2→6.5; receiving yards 58.5→62.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.5 | 13.9 | +0.4 | 22.4→22.7 | targets 8.3→8.8 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | 18.6 | 18.9 | +0.3 | 29.3→29.1 | — |
Moves smaller than 0.3 points are within simulation noise for this refresh (largest move on an unaffected team: 0.0) and are not listed unless a volume stat moved.
See the full KC at LV game page and the Kansas City Chiefs page for every projection, or the props board for current lines.
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