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Emari Demercado and Camden Brown out for DAL vs HOU: Javonte Williams gains +0.9 points in our sims
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
This item was written after the fact from our logged refresh at Oct 4, 2026, 10:47 AM CT; the numbers are the ones the site showed at that time.
Our live updater picked up the following Cowboys status changes at Oct 4, 2026, 10:47 AM CT and re-ran the DAL-HOU simulations (10,000 games):
- Emari Demercado (RB) was downgraded to out; he had been projected for 1.5 half-PPR points (median 0.6)
- Camden Brown is out (he was not in our projected rotation, so nothing changes for him)
Who benefits in our sims
The biggest beneficiary is Javonte Williams (RB), whose half-PPR projection moves from 12.8 to 13.7 (+0.9); median 11.2 to 11.9, 85th-percentile outcome 20.9 to 22.2. Volume: carries 14.1 to 15.1 (mean); rushing yards 60.9 to 65.3 (mean).
| Player | Pos | Half-PPR before | After | Change | 85th pct | Volume (mean) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | RB | 12.8 | 13.7 | +0.9 | 20.9→22.2 | carries 14.1→15.1; rushing yards 60.9→65.3 |
| Tyler Goodson | RB | 2.3 | 2.6 | +0.3 | 5.0→5.7 | — |
Moves smaller than 0.3 points are within simulation noise for this refresh (largest move on an unaffected team: 0.2) and are not listed unless a volume stat moved.
Prop impact
| Player | Prop | Line | Sim median | Our P(over) | Fair over odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | Anytime TD | FanDuel 0.5 | 0.0→0.0 | 54%→56% | −118→−130 |
| Javonte Williams | Rushing yards | FanDuel 59.5 | 53.0→57.0 | 48%→47% | +110→+112 |
P(over) is the site's fair probability (simulation blended with the market, walk-forward) at the time of each refresh. Fair odds carry no vig. Not betting advice; 21+.
Posted lines for Emari Demercado (1), Camden Brown (1) no longer get a model forecast once he is out.
See the full DAL at HOU game page and the Dallas Cowboys page for every projection, or the props board for current lines.
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