PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Juwan Johnson or Darren Waller: who should I start in Week 4?
· Juwan Johnson: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Darren Waller: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Juwan Johnson edges Darren Waller, outscoring him in 50.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Darren Waller (50%). Standard: Juwan Johnson (51%). Need a safe floor? Darren Waller (p10 1.1). Need upside? Juwan Johnson (p85 13.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Juwan Johnson | 50% | TE15 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 15.4 |
| Darren Waller | 50% | TE16 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 15.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Juwan Johnson | 50% | TE15 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 13.1 |
| Darren Waller | 50% | TE16 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 12.3 | |
| Standard | Juwan Johnson | 51% | TE13 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 10.7 |
| Darren Waller | 49% | TE15 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 9.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.