PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Ja'Marr Chase or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 4?
· Ja'Marr Chase: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Ja'Marr Chase edges Tetairoa McMillan, outscoring him in 52.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Ja'Marr Chase (p10 5.4). Need upside? Ja'Marr Chase (p85 27.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Ja'Marr Chase | 53% | WR1 | 18.0 | 7.4 | 32.1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 47% | WR3 | 17.0 | 6.6 | 30.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Ja'Marr Chase | 52% | WR1 | 14.4 | 5.4 | 27.3 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 48% | WR3 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 26.5 | |
| Standard | Ja'Marr Chase | 51% | WR2 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 22.6 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 49% | WR3 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 22.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.