PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Harold Fannin Jr. or Darren Waller: who should I start in Week 4?
· Harold Fannin Jr.: CLE vs PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Darren Waller: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Harold Fannin Jr. edges Darren Waller, outscoring him in 53.0% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (52%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Harold Fannin Jr. (p10 2.0). Need upside? Harold Fannin Jr. (p85 15.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Harold Fannin Jr. | 53% | TE12 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 15.2 |
| Darren Waller | 47% | TE16 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 15.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Harold Fannin Jr. | 52% | TE13 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 12.3 |
| Darren Waller | 48% | TE16 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 12.3 | |
| Standard | Harold Fannin Jr. | 51% | TE16 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 9.5 |
| Darren Waller | 49% | TE15 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 9.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.