PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Dalton Schultz or Juwan Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Dalton Schultz: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Juwan Johnson: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Start Dalton Schultz over Juwan Johnson in Week 4 (PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in half-PPR (56%) and standard (54%). Need a safe floor? Dalton Schultz (p10 2.4). Need upside? Dalton Schultz (p85 17.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Dalton Schultz | 57% | TE10 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 17.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | 43% | TE14 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 16.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Dalton Schultz | 56% | TE10 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 14.2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 44% | TE12 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 13.5 | |
| Standard | Dalton Schultz | 54% | TE10 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 11.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 46% | TE13 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 11.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.