PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Tyler Shough or Patrick Mahomes: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tyler Shough: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Patrick Mahomes: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Start Tyler Shough over Patrick Mahomes in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 58% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (58%) and standard (58%). Need a safe floor? Tyler Shough (p10 11.3). Need upside? Tyler Shough (p85 30.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tyler Shough | 58% | QB2 | 20.1 | 11.3 | 30.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 42% | QB3 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Tyler Shough | 58% | QB2 | 20.1 | 11.3 | 30.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 42% | QB3 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 | |
| Standard | Tyler Shough | 58% | QB2 | 20.1 | 11.3 | 30.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 42% | QB3 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.