PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Patrick Mahomes or Drake Maye: who should I start in Week 4?
· Patrick Mahomes: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Drake Maye: NE vs BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Patrick Mahomes edges Drake Maye, outscoring him in 52.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Patrick Mahomes (p10 9.6). Need upside? Patrick Mahomes (p85 27.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Patrick Mahomes | 52% | QB3 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 |
| Drake Maye | 48% | QB6 | 17.5 | 9.1 | 26.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Patrick Mahomes | 52% | QB3 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 |
| Drake Maye | 48% | QB6 | 17.5 | 9.1 | 26.4 | |
| Standard | Patrick Mahomes | 52% | QB3 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 |
| Drake Maye | 48% | QB6 | 17.5 | 9.1 | 26.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.