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Chris Moore and Joe Fagnano out for BAL vs TEN: our model moves Rashod Bateman to 7.1 points
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
This item was written after the fact from our logged refresh at Oct 4, 2026, 10:47 AM CT; the numbers are the ones the site showed at that time.
At Oct 4, 2026, 10:47 AM CT the injury feeds we track showed a change for the Baltimore Ravens, so the model re-simulated their game against TEN:
- Chris Moore (WR) was downgraded to out; he had been projected for 2.6 half-PPR points (median 1.4)
- Joe Fagnano was downgraded to out (he was not in our projected rotation, so nothing changes for him)
- Zay Flowers (WR) had his questionable tag cleared; his projection moves from 14.7 to 15.2 half-PPR points with the other changes
Where the volume goes
The clearest winner is Rashod Bateman (WR), whose half-PPR projection moves from 6.6 to 7.1 (+0.5); median 4.9 to 5.4, 85th-percentile outcome 12.1 to 13.3. Volume: receiving yards 31.0 to 34.0 (mean).
| Player | Pos | Half-PPR before | After | Change | 85th pct | Volume (mean) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | WR | 6.6 | 7.1 | +0.5 | 12.1→13.3 | receiving yards 31.0→34.0 |
| Devontez Walker | WR | 1.3 | 1.8 | +0.5 | 3.0→4.3 | — |
| LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0.5 | 0.9 | +0.4 | 1.2→1.9 | — |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 18.3 | 18.6 | +0.3 | 28.5→28.6 | — |
Moves smaller than 0.3 points are within simulation noise for this refresh (largest move on an unaffected team: 0.2) and are not listed unless a volume stat moved.
Prop impact
| Player | Prop | Line | Sim median | Our P(over) | Fair over odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | Receiving yards | FanDuel 26.5 | 23.0→26.0 | 49%→49% | +106→+104 |
P(over) is the site's fair probability (simulation blended with the market, walk-forward) at the time of each refresh. Fair odds carry no vig. Not betting advice; 21+.
Posted lines for Chris Moore (3) no longer get a model forecast once he is out.
See the full TEN at BAL game page and the Baltimore Ravens page for every projection, or the props board for current lines.
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Related updates
- Michael Carter and Kylen Granson out for TEN vs BAL: Tony Pollard is the biggest winner (+1.2) Oct 4, 2026, 10:47 AM CT
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