PropTrack record › Weekly official lists › Week 4, 2026
Week 4 official props: graded
Every official estimated-EV player prop we posted for Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, with the line, book, price, our estimated EV, the actual stat and the result. Wins and losses alike; nothing is removed.
Week in progress. Not graded yet: DET @ CAR, ATL @ NO. This page updates on its own as games go final.
Small sample: 124 sportsbook picks. One week of results is mostly noise. Read it that way.
73-49official sportsbook W-L · 2 void · 124 picks
+20.10units (1 unit per pick at the posted price) · ROI 16.5%
59.8%hit rate · break-even about 52.4% at -110
Unders 72-46, +21.70u Under: backtest-validated · Overs 1-3, −1.60u Over: unproven · Pick'em legs 29-17 (below)
Download CSV Share image Same 124 rows as the table. Last pick logged Sun, Oct 4, 12:40 PM ET; results fill in as games go final.
Grading rule (same as the Track Record). Official record: only each pick's final pre-kickoff version counts (the latest row we logged for that player, stat, side and book before kickoff), and only when that version was priced with our market-blended fair probability, which is what the props board showed. Rows whose final version was still priced on raw simulation probability (the first board of Oct 4, 2026, logged 7:09 a.m. CT, before the site switched to fair probabilities at 8:22 a.m. CT) are graded and shown, but kept out of the official record. A player with no box-score line who appears in the play-by-play is graded as 0 in every stat; one who does not appear is void. Not betting advice. 21+.
All official sportsbook picks (124)
How to use: pick a game (or keep All games), filter by side or result, search a player, and tap a column to sort. The game you pick stays in the link, so you can share it.
| Game | Player | Stat | Side | Line | Book | Price | Est. EV | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Laquon TreadwellIND · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | +118 | 8.1% | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Josh DownsIND · WR | Catches | Under | 6.5 | FanDuel | -102 | 3.6% | 3 | Win | +0.98 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Josh DownsIND · WR | Rec yds | Under | 70.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.7% | 16 | Win | +0.89 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · RB | Rush yds | Under | 60.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.4% | 15 | Win | +0.89 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Seth McGowanIND · RB | Rush yds | Under | 6.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.2% | 31 | Loss | −1.00 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Treylon BurksWAS · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | +120 | 1.1% | 1 | Win | +1.20 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Marcus MariotaWAS · QB | Rush yds | Under | 26.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.0% | 35 | Loss | −1.00 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Jonathan TaylorIND · RB | Rush yds | Under | 89.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.9% | 95 | Loss | −1.00 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Chig OkonkwoWAS · TE | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | -140 | 0.9% | 2 | Win | +0.71 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Tyler WarrenIND · TE | Catches | Under | 5.5 | FanDuel | +108 | 0.7% | 5 | Win | +1.08 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Stefon DiggsWAS · WR | Catches | Under | 5.5 | FanDuel | -114 | 0.6% | 5 | Win | +0.88 |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Tyler WarrenIND · TE | Rec yds | Under | 57.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.5% | 41 | Win | +0.89 |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Malik NabersNYG · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -102 | 4.8% | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Isaiah LikelyNYG · TE | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | +126 | 4.7% | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB | Rush yds | Under | 66.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 3.2% | 63 | Win | +0.89 |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Cam SkatteboNYG · RB | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | -108 | 2.0% | 1 | Win | +0.93 |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Malik NabersNYG · WR | Rec yds | Under | 54.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.6% | 112 | Loss | −1.00 |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Isaiah LikelyNYG · TE | Rec yds | Under | 41.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.3% | 66 | Loss | −1.00 |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Bam KnightARI · RB | Anytime TD | Over | 0.5 | FanDuel | +1600 | 1.0% | — | Void | — |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Tyler AllgeierARI · RB | Rush yds | Under | 21.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.0% | 42 | Loss | −1.00 |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Cam SkatteboNYG · RB | Rec yds | Under | 18.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.3% | 8 | Win | +0.89 |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Darnell MooneyNYG · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | +100 | 0.1% | 0 | Win | +1.00 |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Cam SkatteboNYG · RB | Rush yds | Under | 62.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.0% | 58 | Win | +0.89 |
| DAL@HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | Nico CollinsHOU · WR | Catches | Under | 5.5 | FanDuel | -136 | 2.2% | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| DAL@HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | Woody MarksHOU · RB | Rush yds | Under | 36.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.6% | 22 | Win | +0.89 |
| DAL@HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | Dalton SchultzHOU · TE | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -120 | 0.7% | 2 | Win | +0.83 |
| DAL@HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | -136 | 0.2% | 4 | Loss | −1.00 |
| DAL@HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | David MontgomeryHOU · RB | Rush yds | Under | 44.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.1% | 24 | Win | +0.89 |
| DAL@HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | George PickensDAL · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | +108 | 0.1% | 2 | Win | +1.08 |
| DAL@HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | George PickensDAL · WR | Rec yds | Under | 68.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.0% | 75 | Loss | −1.00 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Jalon DanielsTB · QB | Rush yds | Under | 31.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 5.4% | 55 | Loss | −1.00 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Skyy MooreGB · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | -114 | 4.0% | 1 | Win | +0.88 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Bucky IrvingTB · RB | Anytime TD | Over | 0.5 | FanDuel | +165 | 3.8% | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Matthew GoldenGB · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -114 | 3.1% | 3 | Win | +0.88 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Skyy MooreGB · WR | Rec yds | Under | 17.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 2.7% | -2 | Win | +0.89 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Tucker KraftGB · TE | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | +118 | 2.1% | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Ted Hurst IIITB · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | +134 | 1.2% | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Emeka EgbukaTB · WR | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | -144 | 1.1% | 2 | Win | +0.69 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Christian WatsonGB · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | +116 | 1.0% | 3 | Win | +1.16 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Bucky IrvingTB · RB | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | -114 | 0.6% | 0 | Win | +0.88 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Cade OttonTB · TE | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | +120 | 0.3% | 4 | Loss | −1.00 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Tez JohnsonTB · WR | Rec yds | Under | 10.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.3% | 17 | Loss | −1.00 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Jonnu SmithGB · TE | Catches | Under | 0.5 | FanDuel | +164 | 0.2% | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Kenny GainwellTB · RB | Rush yds | Under | 14.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.1% | 5 | Win | +0.89 |
| JAC@CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | Parker WashingtonJAC · WR | Catches | Under | 5.5 | FanDuel | -140 | 2.0% | 1 | Win | +0.71 |
| JAC@CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | Parker WashingtonJAC · WR | Rec yds | Under | 75.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.3% | 7 | Win | +0.89 |
| JAC@CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | Mike GesickiCIN · TE | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | -102 | 0.7% | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| JAC@CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | Travis HunterJAC · WR | Rec yds | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -174 | 0.7% | 0 | Win | +0.57 |
| JAC@CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | Joe BurrowCIN · QB | Rush yds | Under | 8.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.1% | 6 | Win | +0.89 |
| JAC@CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | Chase BrownCIN · RB | Rush yds | Under | 60.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.1% | 10 | Win | +0.89 |
| LAR@PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Darius CooperPHI · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | +118 | 6.2% | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| LAR@PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Davante AdamsLAR · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | +112 | 3.2% | 4 | Win | +1.12 |
| LAR@PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Darius CooperPHI · WR | Rec yds | Under | 19.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.8% | 33 | Loss | −1.00 |
| LAR@PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Jalen HurtsPHI · QB | Rush yds | Under | 28.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.8% | 18 | Win | +0.89 |
| LAR@PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Matthew StaffordLAR · QB | Anytime TD | Over | 0.5 | FanDuel | +2200 | 0.5% | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| LAR@PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Saquon BarkleyPHI · RB | Rush yds | Under | 68.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.4% | 8 | Win | +0.89 |
| LAR@PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Puka NacuaLAR · WR | Catches | Under | 6.5 | FanDuel | -108 | 0.2% | 9 | Loss | −1.00 |
| NE@BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | DJ MooreBUF · WR | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | +124 | 2.9% | 1 | Win | +1.24 |
| NE@BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | Khalil ShakirBUF · WR | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | +116 | 2.2% | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| NE@BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | Mack HollinsNE · WR | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | -106 | 1.7% | 3 | Win | +0.94 |
| NE@BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | Romeo DoubsNE · WR | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | -148 | 1.0% | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| NE@BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | Dalton KincaidBUF · TE | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -148 | 0.9% | 1 | Win | +0.68 |
| NE@BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | Ty JohnsonBUF · RB | Rush yds | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.6% | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| NE@BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | DeMario DouglasNE · WR | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | +112 | 0.5% | 2 | Win | +1.12 |
| NE@BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | Kyle WilliamsNE · WR | Catches | Under | 0.5 | FanDuel | +152 | 0.3% | 0 | Win | +1.52 |
| NE@BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | Drake MayeNE · QB | Rush yds | Under | 27.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.2% | 54 | Loss | −1.00 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Kene NwangwuNYJ · RB | Anytime TD | Over | 0.5 | FanDuel | +2700 | 7.5% | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Isaiah DavisNYJ · RB | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | -130 | 5.5% | 0 | Win | +0.77 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Tyson BagentCHI · QB | Rush yds | Under | 14.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 3.4% | 1 | Win | +0.89 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Luther Burden IIICHI · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -140 | 2.7% | 4 | Win | +0.71 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Braelon AllenNYJ · RB | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | +112 | 2.5% | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Isaiah DavisNYJ · RB | Rec yds | Under | 8.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.8% | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Braelon AllenNYJ · RB | Rush yds | Under | 56.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.7% | 59 | Loss | −1.00 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Colston LovelandCHI · TE | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | -136 | 1.0% | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Luther Burden IIICHI · WR | Rec yds | Under | 46.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.4% | 63 | Loss | −1.00 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Kyle MonangaiCHI · RB | Catches | Under | 0.5 | FanDuel | +164 | 0.4% | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Geno SmithNYJ · QB | Rush yds | Under | 10.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.2% | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TE | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -148 | 0.1% | 0 | Win | +0.68 |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Isaiah DavisNYJ · RB | Rush yds | Under | 21.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.0% | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | +128 | 4.5% | 3 | Win | +1.28 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Justice HillBAL · RB | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | -108 | 2.0% | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Justice HillBAL · RB | Rush yds | Under | 16.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.6% | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Tony PollardTEN · RB | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | +118 | 0.8% | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Cam WardTEN · QB | Rush yds | Under | 10.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.6% | 27 | Loss | −1.00 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Gunnar HelmTEN · TE | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | +112 | 0.5% | 1 | Win | +1.12 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Mark AndrewsBAL · TE | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | +124 | 0.4% | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Elic AyomanorTEN · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | +116 | 0.3% | 1 | Win | +1.16 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Carnell TateTEN · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -136 | 0.2% | 9 | Loss | −1.00 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Tyjae SpearsTEN · RB | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | -160 | 0.1% | 1 | Win | +0.63 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Justice HillBAL · RB | Rec yds | Under | 10.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.0% | 22 | Loss | −1.00 |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Lamar JacksonBAL · QB | Rush yds | Under | 31.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.0% | 20 | Win | +0.89 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Jaylen WrightMIA · RB | Catches | Under | 0.5 | FanDuel | +182 | 4.1% | 0 | Win | +1.82 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | -114 | 4.0% | 1 | Win | +0.88 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Malik WashingtonMIA · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -136 | 3.8% | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Jauan JenningsMIN · WR | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | -132 | 3.7% | 1 | Win | +0.76 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Chris BellMIA · WR | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | -114 | 1.7% | 0 | Win | +0.88 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Malik WashingtonMIA · WR | Rush yds | Under | 5.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.5% | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Jaylen WrightMIA · RB | Rec yds | Under | 5.5 | FanDuel | +100 | 1.5% | 0 | Win | +1.00 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Kyler MurrayMIN · QB | Rush yds | Under | 21.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.1% | 16 | Win | +0.89 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Tai FeltonMIN · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | -102 | 1.1% | 1 | Win | +0.98 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WR | Rec yds | Under | 14.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.9% | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Greg DulcichMIA · TE | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | +128 | 0.9% | — | Void | — |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Jaylen WrightMIA · RB | Rush yds | Under | 27.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.9% | 7 | Win | +0.89 |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Jordan AddisonMIN · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -136 | 0.2% | 4 | Win | +0.73 |
| DEN@SF Sun 4:25 PM ET | Christian McCaffreySF · RB | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | +104 | 1.3% | 3 | Win | +1.04 |
| DEN@SF Sun 4:25 PM ET | Adam TrautmanDEN · TE | Catches | Under | 0.5 | FanDuel | +136 | 0.8% | 0 | Win | +1.36 |
| DEN@SF Sun 4:25 PM ET | George KittleSF · TE | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | +112 | 0.5% | 4 | Win | +1.12 |
| DEN@SF Sun 4:25 PM ET | RJ HarveyDEN · RB | Catches | Under | 3.5 | FanDuel | -136 | 0.4% | 10 | Loss | −1.00 |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Cody WhiteLV · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | -200 | 5.1% | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Brock BowersLV · TE | Catches | Under | 6.5 | FanDuel | -108 | 4.1% | 6 | Win | +0.93 |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Cody WhiteLV · WR | Rec yds | Under | 9.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 3.1% | 36 | Loss | −1.00 |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Jalen NailorLV · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | FanDuel | +128 | 1.7% | 0 | Win | +1.28 |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Brock BowersLV · TE | Rec yds | Under | 72.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.1% | 86 | Loss | −1.00 |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB | Rush yds | Under | 86.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.8% | 177 | Loss | −1.00 |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Emmett JohnsonKC · RB | Rush yds | Under | 14.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.3% | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Travis KelceKC · TE | Catches | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -140 | 0.1% | 2 | Win | +0.71 |
| LAC@SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | Tory HortonSEA · WR | Catches | Under | 0.5 | FanDuel | +182 | 5.5% | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| LAC@SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | Emanuel WilsonSEA · RB | Anytime TD | Over | 0.5 | FanDuel | +140 | 2.3% | 1 | Win | +1.40 |
| LAC@SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR | Catches | Under | 6.5 | FanDuel | +112 | 2.1% | 5 | Win | +1.12 |
| LAC@SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | Oronde Gadsden IILAC · TE | Catches | Under | 2.5 | FanDuel | +112 | 1.2% | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| LAC@SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | George HolaniSEA · RB | Rush yds | Under | 31.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 1.1% | 18 | Win | +0.89 |
| LAC@SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | Sam DarnoldSEA · QB | Rush yds | Under | 4.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.4% | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| LAC@SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | Keaton MitchellLAC · RB | Rec yds | Under | 10.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.3% | 24 | Loss | −1.00 |
| LAC@SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | Tory HortonSEA · WR | Rec yds | Under | 9.5 | FanDuel | -113 | 0.2% | 6 | Win | +0.89 |
Est. EV = our estimated expected value per unit at the posted price when the pick was logged (market-blended fair probability vs. the price). Units: a win at -114 pays +0.877, a loss is -1, a void is 0. Kickoff times ET.
Official pick'em legs (46)
Underdog and PrizePicks 2-pick legs under the same rule, graded per leg against the break-even hit rate (about 53.5% Underdog, 57.7% PrizePicks); no units. Record 29-17, hit rate 63.0%. Download pick'em CSV.
| Game | Player | Stat | Side | Line | Format | Est. EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Josh DownsIND · WR | Rec yds | Under | 70.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 2.0% | 16 | Win |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · RB | Rush yds | Under | 60.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 1.3% | 15 | Win |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Stefon DiggsWAS · WR | Catches | Under | 5.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.5% | 5 | Win |
| IND@WAS Sun 9:30 AM ET | Jonathan TaylorIND · RB | Rush yds | Under | 89.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.3% | 95 | Loss |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB | Rush yds | Under | 66.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 5.0% | 63 | Win |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Malik NabersNYG · WR | Rec yds | Under | 54.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 1.7% | 112 | Loss |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Isaiah LikelyNYG · TE | Rec yds | Under | 41.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 1.0% | 66 | Loss |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Cam SkatteboNYG · RB | Rush yds | Under | 62.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.7% | 58 | Win |
| ARI@NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | Tyler AllgeierARI · RB | Rush yds | Under | 21.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.4% | 42 | Loss |
| DAL@HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | Dalton SchultzHOU · TE | Catches | Under | 4.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 4.1% | 2 | Win |
| DAL@HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | Xavier HutchinsonHOU · WR | Catches | Under | 2.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 1.0% | 3 | Loss |
| DAL@HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | Woody MarksHOU · RB | Rush yds | Under | 33.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.5% | 22 | Win |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Jalon DanielsTB · QB | Rush yds | Under | 31.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 9.5% | 55 | Loss |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Skyy MooreGB · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 7.4% | 1 | Win |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Matthew GoldenGB · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 5.5% | 3 | Win |
| GB@TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | Skyy MooreGB · WR | Rec yds | Under | 17.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 3.9% | -2 | Win |
| JAC@CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | Tee HigginsCIN · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 5.5% | 11 | Loss |
| JAC@CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | Joe BurrowCIN · QB | Rush yds | Under | 8.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 1.6% | 6 | Win |
| JAC@CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | Parker WashingtonJAC · WR | Rec yds | Under | 75.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 1.1% | 7 | Win |
| LAR@PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Darius CooperPHI · WR | Rec yds | Under | 19.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 2.1% | 33 | Loss |
| LAR@PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Jalen HurtsPHI · QB | Rush yds | Under | 26.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.7% | 18 | Win |
| LAR@PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Zach ErtzPHI · TE | Catches | Under | 2.5 | PrizePicks 2-pick | 0.1% | 2 | Win |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Luther Burden IIICHI · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | PrizePicks 2-pick | 7.7% | 4 | Win |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Isaiah DavisNYJ · RB | Catches | Under | 1.5 | PrizePicks 2-pick | 6.6% | 0 | Win |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Isaiah DavisNYJ · RB | Rec yds | Under | 8.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 2.0% | 0 | Win |
| NYJ@CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | Braelon AllenNYJ · RB | Rush yds | Under | 56.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 1.8% | 59 | Loss |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Justice HillBAL · RB | Catches | Under | 1.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 2.1% | 2 | Loss |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Justice HillBAL · RB | Rush yds | Under | 16.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 1.8% | 3 | Win |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Justice HillBAL · RB | Rec yds | Under | 11.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 1.6% | 22 | Loss |
| TEN@BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | Cam WardTEN · QB | Rush yds | Under | 10.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.1% | 27 | Loss |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Jordan AddisonMIN · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 16.8% | 4 | Win |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WR | Catches | Under | 1.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 7.4% | 1 | Win |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Ryan MillerMIA · TE | Rec yds | Under | 4.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 3.0% | 0 | Win |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Chris BellMIA · WR | Catches | Under | 2.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 2.8% | 0 | Win |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Kyler MurrayMIN · QB | Rush yds | Under | 21.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.8% | 16 | Win |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WR | Rec yds | Under | 14.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.3% | 3 | Win |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Jaylen WrightMIA · RB | Rush yds | Under | 27.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.2% | 7 | Win |
| MIA@MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET | Jordan AddisonMIN · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | PrizePicks 2-pick | 0.1% | 4 | Win |
| DEN@SF Sun 4:25 PM ET | Jaylen WaddleDEN · WR | Catches | Under | 4.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 6.8% | 5 | Loss |
| DEN@SF Sun 4:25 PM ET | RJ HarveyDEN · RB | Catches | Under | 3.5 | PrizePicks 2-pick | 0.3% | 10 | Loss |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Cody WhiteLV · WR | Rec yds | Under | 9.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 4.7% | 36 | Loss |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Brock BowersLV · TE | Catches | Under | 6.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 2.3% | 6 | Win |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Emmett JohnsonKC · RB | Rush yds | Under | 17.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 1.2% | 0 | Win |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Brock BowersLV · TE | Rec yds | Under | 72.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.7% | 86 | Loss |
| KC@LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB | Rush yds | Under | 86.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.1% | 177 | Loss |
| LAC@SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | George HolaniSEA · RB | Rush yds | Under | 31.5 | Underdog 2-pick | 0.6% | 18 | Win |
Not on this list: 779 graded rows from this week whose final pre-kickoff version was priced on raw simulation probability (312 sportsbook). They are graded and shown on the Track Record page but are not official. Not tracked this week (props captured after kickoff): PIT@CLE, IND@WAS, ARI@NYG, DAL@HOU, GB@TB, JAC@CIN, LAR@PHI, NE@BUF, NYJ@CHI, TEN@BAL, MIA@MIN, DEN@SF, KC@LV, LAC@SEA.