PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Zay Flowers or Chris Olave: who should I start in Week 4?
· Zay Flowers: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Chris Olave: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Zay Flowers edges Chris Olave, outscoring him in 51.8% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (53%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Zay Flowers (p10 5.7). Need upside? Zay Flowers (p85 29.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Zay Flowers | 52% | WR6 | 15.5 | 5.7 | 29.4 |
| Chris Olave | 48% | WR9 | 14.9 | 5.7 | 26.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Zay Flowers | 53% | WR5 | 12.9 | 4.4 | 25.6 |
| Chris Olave | 47% | WR8 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 22.8 | |
| Standard | Zay Flowers | 55% | WR4 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 21.7 |
| Chris Olave | 45% | WR8 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 18.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.