PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Tony Pollard or J.K. Dobbins: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tony Pollard: TEN vs BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · J.K. Dobbins: DEN vs SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tony Pollard edges J.K. Dobbins, outscoring him in 50.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Tony Pollard (p10 3.4). Need upside? J.K. Dobbins (p85 16.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tony Pollard | 51% | RB24 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 16.8 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 49% | RB26 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 17.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Tony Pollard | 51% | RB23 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 16.2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 49% | RB25 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 16.9 | |
| Standard | Tony Pollard | 51% | RB23 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 15.6 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 50% | RB22 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 16.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.