PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Tony Pollard or David Montgomery: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tony Pollard: TEN vs BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · David Montgomery: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tony Pollard edges David Montgomery, outscoring him in 52.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Tony Pollard (p10 2.9). Need upside? David Montgomery (p85 15.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tony Pollard | 51% | RB29 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 15.6 |
| David Montgomery | 49% | RB28 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 16.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Tony Pollard | 52% | RB28 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 14.8 |
| David Montgomery | 48% | RB29 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 15.5 | |
| Standard | Tony Pollard | 53% | RB26 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 14.1 |
| David Montgomery | 47% | RB28 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 14.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.