PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Tetairoa McMillan or Garrett Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Garrett Wilson: NYJ vs CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tetairoa McMillan edges Garrett Wilson, outscoring him in 51.4% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Garrett Wilson (51%). Standard: Tetairoa McMillan (54%). Need a safe floor? Garrett Wilson (p10 4.8). Need upside? Tetairoa McMillan (p85 24.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tetairoa McMillan | 49% | WR7 | 15.3 | 5.8 | 28.0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 51% | WR6 | 15.4 | 6.6 | 26.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Tetairoa McMillan | 51% | WR5 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 24.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 49% | WR8 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 21.8 | |
| Standard | Tetairoa McMillan | 54% | WR5 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 20.2 |
| Garrett Wilson | 46% | WR9 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 17.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.