PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft: who should I start in Week 4?
· Juwan Johnson: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Tucker Kraft: GB vs TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Juwan Johnson edges Tucker Kraft, outscoring him in 50.4% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (50%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Tucker Kraft (p10 1.6). Need upside? Juwan Johnson (p85 16.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Juwan Johnson | 50% | TE14 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 16.0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 50% | TE15 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 15.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Juwan Johnson | 50% | TE12 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| Tucker Kraft | 50% | TE14 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 12.6 | |
| Standard | Juwan Johnson | 50% | TE13 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 11.1 |
| Tucker Kraft | 50% | TE12 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 10.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.