PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
J.K. Dobbins or Tony Pollard: who should I start in Week 4?
· J.K. Dobbins: DEN vs SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Tony Pollard: TEN vs BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: J.K. Dobbins edges Tony Pollard, outscoring him in 52.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (54%). Need a safe floor? Tony Pollard (p10 3.0). Need upside? J.K. Dobbins (p85 16.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | J.K. Dobbins | 51% | RB26 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 17.1 |
| Tony Pollard | 49% | RB27 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 15.7 | |
| Half-PPR | J.K. Dobbins | 52% | RB24 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 16.6 |
| Tony Pollard | 48% | RB26 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 14.7 | |
| Standard | J.K. Dobbins | 54% | RB21 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 16.1 |
| Tony Pollard | 46% | RB26 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 13.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.