PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Hunter Henry or Juwan Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Hunter Henry: NE vs BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Juwan Johnson: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Hunter Henry edges Juwan Johnson, outscoring him in 53.6% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (54%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Hunter Henry (p10 1.9). Need upside? Hunter Henry (p85 16.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Hunter Henry | 54% | TE11 | 7.9 | 1.9 | 16.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | 46% | TE14 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 16.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Hunter Henry | 54% | TE11 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 14.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 47% | TE12 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 13.5 | |
| Standard | Hunter Henry | 53% | TE11 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 11.2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 47% | TE13 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 11.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.