PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
David Montgomery or TreVeyon Henderson: who should I start in Week 4?
· David Montgomery: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · TreVeyon Henderson: NE vs BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: David Montgomery edges TreVeyon Henderson, outscoring him in 51.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: David Montgomery (53%). Standard: TreVeyon Henderson (50%). Need a safe floor? TreVeyon Henderson (p10 2.0). Need upside? David Montgomery (p85 15.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | David Montgomery | 53% | RB28 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 16.6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 47% | RB31 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 15.2 | |
| Half-PPR | David Montgomery | 52% | RB29 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 15.5 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 48% | RB31 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 14.6 | |
| Standard | David Montgomery | 50% | RB28 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 14.6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 50% | RB30 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 13.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.