PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
C.J. Stroud or Patrick Mahomes: who should I start in Week 4?
· C.J. Stroud: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Patrick Mahomes: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: C.J. Stroud edges Patrick Mahomes, outscoring him in 50.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? C.J. Stroud (p10 9.6). Need upside? Patrick Mahomes (p85 26.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | C.J. Stroud | 51% | QB6 | 17.2 | 9.6 | 26.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 49% | QB7 | 17.0 | 8.9 | 26.4 | |
| Half-PPR | C.J. Stroud | 51% | QB6 | 17.2 | 9.6 | 26.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 49% | QB7 | 17.0 | 8.9 | 26.4 | |
| Standard | C.J. Stroud | 51% | QB6 | 17.2 | 9.6 | 26.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 49% | QB7 | 17.0 | 8.9 | 26.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.