PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Chris Olave or Rashee Rice: who should I start in Week 4?
· Chris Olave: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Rashee Rice: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Chris Olave edges Rashee Rice, outscoring him in 51.1% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (51%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Chris Olave (p10 5.7). Need upside? Chris Olave (p85 26.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chris Olave | 51% | WR9 | 14.9 | 5.7 | 26.8 |
| Rashee Rice | 49% | WR10 | 14.5 | 5.4 | 26.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Chris Olave | 51% | WR8 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 22.8 |
| Rashee Rice | 49% | WR10 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 22.4 | |
| Standard | Chris Olave | 50% | WR8 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 18.9 |
| Rashee Rice | 50% | WR9 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 18.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.