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Start/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB

Ashton Jeanty or Javonte Williams: who should I start in Week 4?

· Ashton Jeanty: LV vs KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Javonte Williams: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET

START ASHTON JEANTYCOIN FLIP

Coin flip in Week 4: Ashton Jeanty edges Javonte Williams, outscoring him in 54.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Ashton Jeanty (p10 4.8). Need upside? Ashton Jeanty (p85 23.4).

ScoringPlayerWins H2HRankMedianFloor p10Ceiling p85
PPRAshton Jeanty55%RB1114.25.725.1
Javonte Williams45%RB1512.85.322.8
Half-PPRAshton Jeanty55%RB1112.74.823.4
Javonte Williams45%RB1411.44.520.9
StandardAshton Jeanty55%RB1111.33.821.8
Javonte Williams45%RB149.93.519.3

Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.

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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.