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Should I start Kaelon Black in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · SF vs DEN · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Kaelon Black RB53 in half-PPR for Week 4 (SF vs DEN): sit in a 12-team league. Median 3.3 points, floor 0.5 (p10), ceiling 9.9 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: RB55 (median 3.6). Standard: RB49 (median 3.1).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | RB55 | Sit | 3.6 | 0.5 | 10.2 |
| Half-PPR | RB53 | Sit | 3.3 | 0.5 | 9.9 |
| Standard | RB49 | Sit | 3.1 | 0.4 | 9.7 |
Game environment: SF market-implied team total 25.5 vs 23.0 for DEN (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 2% target share, 31% carry share, 30% snap rate (nflverse).
Ranked nearby (RB, half-PPR): Michael Carter (RB51), Raheim Sanders (RB52), Ty Johnson (RB54), Tyjae Spears (RB55).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings