PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Rhamondre Stevenson or J.K. Dobbins: who should I start in Week 4?
· Rhamondre Stevenson: NE vs BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · J.K. Dobbins: DEN vs SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Rhamondre Stevenson edges J.K. Dobbins, outscoring him in 50.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Rhamondre Stevenson (54%). Standard: J.K. Dobbins (54%). Need a safe floor? Rhamondre Stevenson (p10 2.4). Need upside? J.K. Dobbins (p85 15.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Rhamondre Stevenson | 54% | RB21 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 16.1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 46% | RB31 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 15.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Rhamondre Stevenson | 51% | RB23 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 14.5 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 50% | RB24 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 15.3 | |
| Standard | Rhamondre Stevenson | 46% | RB25 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 13.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 54% | RB23 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 15.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.