PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Emanuel Wilson or J.K. Dobbins: who should I start in Week 4?
· Emanuel Wilson: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · J.K. Dobbins: DEN vs SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Emanuel Wilson edges J.K. Dobbins, outscoring him in 51.6% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? J.K. Dobbins (p10 2.4). Need upside? Emanuel Wilson (p85 17.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Emanuel Wilson | 51% | RB26 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 17.3 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 49% | RB31 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 15.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Emanuel Wilson | 52% | RB21 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 17.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 48% | RB24 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 15.3 | |
| Standard | Emanuel Wilson | 52% | RB18 | 7.7 | 1.9 | 16.7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 48% | RB23 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 15.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.