PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jaylen Warren or Christian McCaffrey: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaylen Warren: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Christian McCaffrey: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jaylen Warren edges Christian McCaffrey, outscoring him in 53.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (54%). Need a safe floor? Jaylen Warren (p10 7.1). Need upside? Christian McCaffrey (p85 25.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaylen Warren | 53% | RB5 | 16.7 | 8.0 | 27.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 47% | RB9 | 15.7 | 5.9 | 27.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaylen Warren | 54% | RB7 | 15.1 | 7.1 | 25.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 46% | RB9 | 14.0 | 4.8 | 25.6 | |
| Standard | Jaylen Warren | 54% | RB8 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 23.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 46% | RB9 | 12.3 | 3.7 | 23.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.