PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Trevor Lawrence or Patrick Mahomes: who should I start in Week 4?
· Trevor Lawrence: JAC vs CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Patrick Mahomes: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Trevor Lawrence edges Patrick Mahomes, outscoring him in 51.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Trevor Lawrence (p10 9.3). Need upside? Trevor Lawrence (p85 26.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Trevor Lawrence | 51% | QB5 | 17.3 | 9.3 | 26.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 49% | QB7 | 17.0 | 8.9 | 26.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Trevor Lawrence | 51% | QB5 | 17.3 | 9.3 | 26.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 49% | QB7 | 17.0 | 8.9 | 26.4 | |
| Standard | Trevor Lawrence | 51% | QB5 | 17.3 | 9.3 | 26.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 49% | QB7 | 17.0 | 8.9 | 26.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.