PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
TreVeyon Henderson or MarShawn Lloyd: who should I start in Week 4?
· TreVeyon Henderson: NE vs BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · MarShawn Lloyd: GB vs TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start TreVeyon Henderson over MarShawn Lloyd in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 55% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (54%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? TreVeyon Henderson (p10 2.0). Need upside? TreVeyon Henderson (p85 14.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | TreVeyon Henderson | 54% | RB31 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 15.2 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 46% | RB34 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 15.1 | |
| Half-PPR | TreVeyon Henderson | 55% | RB31 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 14.6 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 45% | RB32 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 14.3 | |
| Standard | TreVeyon Henderson | 56% | RB30 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 13.9 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 44% | RB32 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 13.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.