PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Tre Tucker or Mike Evans: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tre Tucker: LV vs KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Mike Evans: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tre Tucker edges Mike Evans, outscoring him in 50.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (50%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Tre Tucker (p10 1.6). Need upside? Tre Tucker (p85 13.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tre Tucker | 50% | WR35 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 16.6 |
| Mike Evans | 50% | WR34 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 16.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Tre Tucker | 51% | WR33 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 13.9 |
| Mike Evans | 49% | WR34 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 13.8 | |
| Standard | Tre Tucker | 51% | WR33 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 11.3 |
| Mike Evans | 49% | WR35 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 11.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.