PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Tetairoa McMillan or Rashee Rice: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Rashee Rice: KC vs LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tetairoa McMillan edges Rashee Rice, outscoring him in 50.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (50%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Tetairoa McMillan (p10 2.9). Need upside? Tetairoa McMillan (p85 20.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tetairoa McMillan | 50% | WR16 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 23.8 |
| Rashee Rice | 50% | WR17 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 23.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Tetairoa McMillan | 51% | WR16 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 20.5 |
| Rashee Rice | 49% | WR17 | 9.9 | 2.9 | 20.1 | |
| Standard | Tetairoa McMillan | 51% | WR15 | 7.9 | 1.9 | 17.3 |
| Rashee Rice | 49% | WR17 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 16.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.