PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Tetairoa McMillan or Amon-Ra St. Brown: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Amon-Ra St. Brown: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tetairoa McMillan edges Amon-Ra St. Brown, outscoring him in 51.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Tetairoa McMillan (p10 4.3). Need upside? Tetairoa McMillan (p85 24.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tetairoa McMillan | 51% | WR7 | 15.3 | 5.8 | 28.0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 49% | WR8 | 15.1 | 5.7 | 27.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Tetairoa McMillan | 52% | WR5 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 24.1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 48% | WR7 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 23.4 | |
| Standard | Tetairoa McMillan | 53% | WR5 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 20.2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 47% | WR7 | 9.1 | 2.4 | 19.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.