PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Puka Nacua or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 4?
· Puka Nacua: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Puka Nacua edges Tetairoa McMillan, outscoring him in 51.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Puka Nacua (p10 5.0). Need upside? Puka Nacua (p85 24.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Puka Nacua | 53% | WR2 | 16.2 | 6.8 | 28.6 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 47% | WR7 | 15.3 | 5.8 | 28.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Puka Nacua | 52% | WR4 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 24.2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 48% | WR5 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 24.1 | |
| Standard | Puka Nacua | 50% | WR4 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 19.9 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 50% | WR5 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 20.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.