PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Malik Nabers or Mike Evans: who should I start in Week 4?
· Malik Nabers: NYG vs ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Mike Evans: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Malik Nabers edges Mike Evans, outscoring him in 51.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Mike Evans (p10 1.5). Need upside? Malik Nabers (p85 15.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Malik Nabers | 51% | WR33 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 17.7 |
| Mike Evans | 49% | WR34 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 16.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Malik Nabers | 51% | WR32 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 15.2 |
| Mike Evans | 49% | WR34 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 13.8 | |
| Standard | Malik Nabers | 52% | WR32 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 12.9 |
| Mike Evans | 48% | WR35 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 11.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.