PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Malik Nabers or Deebo Samuel Sr.: who should I start in Week 4?
· Malik Nabers: NYG vs ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Deebo Samuel Sr.: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Malik Nabers edges Deebo Samuel Sr., outscoring him in 50.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (50%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Deebo Samuel Sr. (p10 1.6). Need upside? Malik Nabers (p85 14.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Malik Nabers | 50% | WR33 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 17.1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 50% | WR34 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 15.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Malik Nabers | 51% | WR32 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 14.8 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 49% | WR35 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 13.1 | |
| Standard | Malik Nabers | 51% | WR34 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 12.4 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 49% | WR38 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 10.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.