PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Kyren Williams or Javonte Williams: who should I start in Week 4?
· Kyren Williams: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Javonte Williams: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Kyren Williams edges Javonte Williams, outscoring him in 54.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (54%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Kyren Williams (p10 5.3). Need upside? Kyren Williams (p85 23.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Kyren Williams | 54% | RB12 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 24.8 |
| Javonte Williams | 46% | RB14 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 23.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Kyren Williams | 55% | RB12 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 23.3 |
| Javonte Williams | 45% | RB15 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 21.8 | |
| Standard | Kyren Williams | 56% | RB11 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 22.1 |
| Javonte Williams | 44% | RB15 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 20.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.