PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Kyren Williams or Ashton Jeanty: who should I start in Week 4?
· Kyren Williams: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Ashton Jeanty: LV vs KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Kyren Williams edges Ashton Jeanty, outscoring him in 52.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (54%). Need a safe floor? Kyren Williams (p10 5.3). Need upside? Kyren Williams (p85 24.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Kyren Williams | 51% | RB10 | 14.6 | 5.9 | 25.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 49% | RB11 | 14.2 | 5.7 | 25.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Kyren Williams | 53% | RB10 | 13.4 | 5.3 | 24.6 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 47% | RB11 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 23.4 | |
| Standard | Kyren Williams | 54% | RB10 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 23.3 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 46% | RB11 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 21.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.