PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Jordan Addison or DK Metcalf: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jordan Addison: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · DK Metcalf: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jordan Addison edges DK Metcalf, outscoring him in 50.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: DK Metcalf (51%). Standard: Jordan Addison (52%). Need a safe floor? DK Metcalf (p10 2.6). Need upside? Jordan Addison (p85 18.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jordan Addison | 49% | WR23 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 21.4 |
| DK Metcalf | 51% | WR21 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 20.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Jordan Addison | 50% | WR20 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 18.5 |
| DK Metcalf | 50% | WR22 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 17.0 | |
| Standard | Jordan Addison | 52% | WR18 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 15.7 |
| DK Metcalf | 48% | WR22 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 13.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.