PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Joe Burrow or C.J. Stroud: who should I start in Week 4?
· Joe Burrow: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · C.J. Stroud: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Joe Burrow edges C.J. Stroud, outscoring him in 50.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? C.J. Stroud (p10 9.2). Need upside? Joe Burrow (p85 26.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Joe Burrow | 51% | QB11 | 16.8 | 8.8 | 26.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | 49% | QB13 | 16.6 | 9.2 | 25.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Joe Burrow | 51% | QB11 | 16.8 | 8.8 | 26.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | 49% | QB13 | 16.6 | 9.2 | 25.8 | |
| Standard | Joe Burrow | 51% | QB11 | 16.8 | 8.8 | 26.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | 49% | QB13 | 16.6 | 9.2 | 25.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.