PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jaylen Warren or Ashton Jeanty: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaylen Warren: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Ashton Jeanty: LV vs KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jaylen Warren edges Ashton Jeanty, outscoring him in 52.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Ashton Jeanty (50%). Standard: Jaylen Warren (54%). Need a safe floor? Jaylen Warren (p10 6.9). Need upside? Ashton Jeanty (p85 25.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaylen Warren | 50% | RB9 | 16.3 | 7.6 | 27.3 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 50% | RB8 | 16.7 | 7.2 | 28.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaylen Warren | 52% | RB9 | 14.8 | 6.9 | 25.7 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 48% | RB10 | 14.6 | 6.0 | 25.8 | |
| Standard | Jaylen Warren | 54% | RB9 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 24.1 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 46% | RB10 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 23.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.