PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jaxon Smith-Njigba: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jaxon Smith-Njigba edges Tetairoa McMillan, outscoring him in 51.4% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p10 4.4). Need upside? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (p85 25.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 51% | WR3 | 15.8 | 5.9 | 29.3 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 49% | WR7 | 15.3 | 5.8 | 28.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 51% | WR3 | 13.0 | 4.4 | 25.3 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 49% | WR5 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 24.1 | |
| Standard | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 51% | WR3 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 21.2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 49% | WR5 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 20.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.